Goju's Notes from Safe America Conference NYC
Filed Under mercialleasing.com |
Safe America is a 12 year old company encouraging people to prepare for emergencies. They have partnered with many large corps now for the prep for BF
The conference was Business focused
It was held in NBC-TV’s Studio where they shoot SNL (Saturday Night Live – go figure!)
They are holding similar events in Major and secondary cities
www.safeamerica.com
They gave out a CD with Power point presentations, PSA tv spots, and all slide shows presented at the conference – I have uploaded them to
www.mipodcast.com/H5N1
There are many valuable gems there – look for the file named - SafeAmericaPresentation
On to the Meeting…..
First panel
CDC
Dept of Homeland Security
National Center for Disaster preparedness – Columbia University (Megadisasters)
My notes:
Talked about Migratory birds and and poultry trade as spreading disease
Said most bird problems in Asia.
Will ask families of sick people to stay home
Navu study – wash hands 5x a day reduced illness by 45%
Kept using 1918 figures of 30% sick & 2.5% fatality,
1-2 months to reach US after Efficient H2H in asia
Initial response may be travel restrictions
Trying to push the first wave later in time and lower case rate
Used comparison of 1918 – Phili vs St Louis – Phili had big parade biggest death rate.
St Louis instituted social distancing measures and had lowest death rate
Goals:
1 – Plan for impact on Biz
2 – Protect People
3 –Establish policies
4 – Allocate resources
5 – Communicate and educate
6 – Coordinate plans and responses
They hope to not have to distribute critical resources during pandemic
1-telecommunications
2 – Electricity
3 – Water
expect 30-50% worker outages
Gut from Columbia said
We are facing a Megadisaster
Not facing reality
Says public is very worried
Hospitals need $5 billion now and $1 billion each year to hope to deal with this.
Overall it was good general BF coverage – they were begging for biz to pay attention
Say it ultimately comes down to the individual
GOJU ASKED THE FIRST QUESTIONS:
1 – Why do you use CFR of 2.5% when the current rate has been 50% and Indonesia is seeing 80% - It seems to be getting worse
2 – You say the birds are a problem in asia, what about the LPAI found in the birds in PA and Mich this past week?
Answers
We don’t know what the CFR will finally be so we are using history as a guide
They were stumped at the bird question said wasn’t problem at this point in time – It seems they were talking heads sent by the agencies to give the party line. –
Someone in the audience said they ran simulations and did a study where they had 80-90% worker outages.
Bottom Line – We know more
During break I met a woman who works for the company who will be distributing Tamiflu for Roche to biz – she knew nothing and has not prepped herself
Panel 2
Understanding corporate threat
2 consultant companies and homeland security
talked about Train studies of London underground
maintenance and part supply was biggest long term problem
How could Biz lower their staffing needs to 50%
Big empasis on not planning but DOING – moving to ACTION
Said this is NOT 1918 – medical, population, society, politics
73% of Biz who had 10 day disruption had to close
43% never recovered
Doing is the key
Communication tools very important to develop
All comes down to taking action NOW
Break
Panel 3
Plotting Prevention and Treatment
Solvay Pharma (making vax)
Roache labs
NYC Dept of health
Affiliated Physicians
3M
I missed most of the vax guy talk – had to talk a call from my biz
Roche – they are making 400 million dose by end of year and have enough to deal with problem in 2 years
US is stockpiling Tami in 10 locations to be used by emergency personal
NYHD – he was funny – he complained about the lack of preparedness and that NYC and other health depts. Are not being given what they need – he wanted toi be booked on SNL – only funny moment of the day (leave it to us New Yorkers to laugh in the face of disaster)
This was a disappointing section – not much to report
Break – I turn and see Dr Nabarro (UN) sitting by himself in the front row. He must have just arrived. So… I sat next to him, introduced myself, told him I have followed his career and thought he was very brave to say 150 million would die only to have to retract it next day.
Next we talked… for 10 minutes… alone… uninterrupted.
There is NO news from China
Indonesia is a mess & not cooperating
Going to Indo next week to see what happened w/ tami blanket – he didn’t know results yet of that & roadblocks
Key people ARE supplied
He is prepped but wouldn’t talk about it
Africa is a BIG concern
He was impressed with my knowledge
He reads the flu forums sometimes
He is exhausted and very concerned
When I mentioned Qinhai – his eyes lit up and muttered “you know about that?”
We exchanged cards and he introduced me to his UN assistant.
We exchanged cards – I put the flu forums URL on the back of my cards
NEXT was a teleconferenc call with Dr Houssin – Chief Med officer National flu coordinater – FRANCE
They are developing plans
Improving regional and local responses
Stockpiled:
14 mill antivirals
350 mill masks
160 mill other masks ?
40 mill vax ?
they are working with:
embassies
hospitals
airports
cross border relations
doing social distancing experiments with Sanove vantris (spelling?) involving:
mask usage, eworking, how to deal w/ sick workers AT THE WORKPLACE
People not taking it seriously – they think Gov will take care of them
QUESTION TIME
Goju gets first question:
When WHO raises the pandemic level to 4, 5 & 6 what will Frances response be?
Answer:
They will not close borders but will put restriction on them and monitor them
They may quarentine arirports for a time
Nabarro Speaks
Says he lives and breaths this
He was not happy with the French response to my question about the airports
He kept saying “when the pandemic comes…”
“the Possible pandemic”
H5N1 is the nastiest virus ever seen”
Talked about cats, gogs infected and limited H2H
Showed an interactive map of H5N1 spread
Emphasized how fast it is spreading this year
He has BIG worries about Nigeria and Egypt – did not elaborate
Quiet this summer but expect increases in asia and Africa
Going to Indo next week to see whats going on there
He is sad about thailands recurring outbreaks after they effectively beat it last year
Probably many more infections and deaths than reported
Inefficient H2H in N Sumatra
There will be a pandemic – may be H5N1 could be like 1918 or worse
Would not estimate how many would die – said he got into trouble for doing that before
Once it goes efficient H2H – BOOM it will be too late to prep
Right now we have “God given time” to prepare
Levels 4, 5 & 6 could happen very fast
UN asked WHO to go to level 4 months ago – they refused – he said they were right to refuse
Restriction of movement may be necessary
His job is to coordinate 100-200 international bodies to all work together in same direction
Talked about how they did it for SARS and how close we were to a pandemic
Possible threats – Rule of law, security, continuance of governments
UN is following 2 models for pandemic – Heavy and Light
Must engage the public
Life goes on he said – must maintain functioning
Most countries will keep borders open (hence the france comments)
Keep transportation moving
Talked about you cannot cull poultry if you don’t compensate farmers
Said indo gov is scared to take money from World Bank due to certain Corruption.
Break
Panel 4
Red cross
Homeland security – Cptn Lynn Slepski
Walgreens
Deloitte & Touche
Trying to recruit volunteers for Red Cross – very poor response
Business continuity presentation – excellent
Must –
cross train workers
Plan for leadership continuity
Don’t do tabletop exercises – just do
Make a continuity plan – any plan but institute NOW tweek as you go
Quality assurance plan
Preposition supplies
Teach people how to use those supplies – used the example of N-95 mask usage for a bearded worker
How do u pay for voluntary or forced quarentine of workers
The homeland security officer (in a uniform – I loved this lady)…..
She asked who washed their hands before eating lunch – 10 out of 250 – HA
She talked about her preps and how UNPREPARRED she really was –
She talked like a mom to her kids about behaving in a healthy and responsible way
This woman put me to tears – tears were streaming down my face – I couldn’t help it – it was the first time I have heard anyone talk like me BEGGING each and every person in the room to begin prepping.
Break
Panel 5
Campell soup
NBC
Motorola
St barnabas health system
JMC Marketing
Motorola is making all wireless devices into emergency communication deveices with something she called – ICOE – In Case Of Emergency – it is a number you dial and they will contact you in case of national emergency
They are going to start airing PSA’s on TV all over the country about hand washing and food prep – for 2 weeks per person in English and Spanish
GOJU’s TAKE ON ALL THIS
1 – We know more than almost everyone on the planet.
2 – TPTB are taking this VERY seriously
3 – I asked each member of Safe America if they themselves are prepared – 2 said they have 2 weeks of food… not much else – everyone else said… no. I asked why since I really didn’t understand how THEY knowing everything but haven’t prepped… there was stunning silence – from each and every one of them.
4 – of the 30-40 people I spoke with, 2 were prepped for 3 months, 5 for 2 weeks.
5 – I spoke with a rep from HESS oil. I expressed my feeling that if oil stopped, we are screwed. She agreed and then told me how this was on the front burner in all the oil companies plans. She said the wells, refineries and shipping all were 24/7 with multiple levels of backup both in parts and manpower – they are confident they can ride it out BUT… the problem they are having is further down the line at the regional and local level. They can’t guarentee that the oil will reach the pumps and if it did, that the pumps would work. That was an opinion echoed through the day. They are VERY aware that if they screw up, Power, Food, Water are all done for. I asked if they were making deals with the military to supply them first to run things like Power plants and food transport – she said they do have arrangements for this but she didn’t think that would be necessary due to the planning they have done… including the power industry
6 – many people who spoke and I spoke with were “talking heads” sent by their companies or agencies with a script (I use the word loosely). They were not experts in their fields nor very well informed outside of their directed framework.
7 – I spoke with a rep from UNICEF – they are planning a major campaign to educate KIDS to the BF – I heard this from multiple people there – they believe the way to get to the parents is through the kids. They believe that the pandemic will spread through the schools. They want hand washing and cough techniques to be a BIG part of the education process.
8- My final thought – the world is waking up to actually doing something. The problem IMHO is much larger than we as a planet can deal with… If we have a high CFR, We Are Screwed.
I have contact info for Dr Nabarro. As in my questions at the conference, I will contact him ONLY ONCE… so the message MUST BE ON POINT.
Lets mull over this meeting, all I have seen and decide as a group how to make use of this valuable resource. We have one bullet – lets use it wisely.
Wishing you all good luck. We’re gonna need it.
Safe America worked with NBC to pull this together. Their goal is to get every person prepped with 2 weeks of supplies... unsaid was "at this point - we may increase that number"
i wish the companies there would commit to lowering prices on all items they sell, sell in bulk to consumers, advertise the Pandemic supply sale or whatever - "Be Prepared not scared" all over tthe place - the resulting economic boom might put enough money in their pockets that they could make it through the pandemic
No one knows. There will be another pandemic. It might be H5N1. It might not. We are approaching the traditional flu season in the United States so it makes sense to prepare.
Wha'ts the going timeframe now-a-days? 2wks to a month?
-hawkeye
Thank again Goju
Don't know how it will help in january but it sure is tasty.
FYI - i planted 30 heirloom seeds - i got 2 sunflowers for the effort. i planted 5 packets of store bought seeds - they all sprouted. Whats up with that?
All info on upcoming Safe America conferences are on their website.
I will be contacting them this week to see if i can get their support for my efforts locally. It should be interesting.
Lets mull over this meeting, all I have seen and decide as a group how to make use of this valuable resource. We have one bullet – lets use it wisely.So, what are you/we gonna say to him?
Putting aside modesty for a moment, we on this board are quite an unusual group of extremely well-informed (as far as bf goes anyway!), driven folks who could -- should! -- be put to good use in further spreading the word, etc. One can already see the results of the tireless efforts of the founders/admins & contributors of the board who work hard every day to further the cause of this board! We need to build on these results!
We should all be working together at this point -- the WHO, TPTB, us. How do we arrange more of that?
So with that in mind, his role as "doctor" may be quite limited. He is more of a politician than physician at this point.
I thought of asking him that but didnt think it would yield any needed answers.
We all saw Niman's predictions come true about Migratory spread and adding of human traits to the virus without major genetic shifts or reassortments. I personally think he is dead on and an early warner of H5N1 Pandemic potential.
Let Nabarro deal with France's Health officer first.
I need to be perfectly clear about my notes I posted. I went into the conference armed with knowledge i have gained ever since May 2005 - Qinhai incident. I have been on these boards since then… reading every **** thing i could find.
I read The Great Influenza, Monster at the Door, Defoes book, I have followed Dr. Niman, I read all the gov sites. You can see my list of files at the website with my posting.
I went into that conference armed with as much info on H5N1 and the effects of a pandemic as anyone could - excluding conspiracy theories. I have spent many countless hours thinking about pandemic, planning for my survival, picturing senario after senario. I have talked to people till i am blue in the face trying to get them to prep. I have been labled “nuts” by almost everyone. I was just about to call a shrink … not anymore.
I have learned more about medicine, virology, history, geography, politics, media, survival preperation and tactics, guns (i am an avid anti-gun person who now owns and has trained with shotguns and handguns) than i would ever have imagined i would. I have become a walking encyclopedia of H5N1. And thanks to these boards very current.
I was ready to defend my stocked castle…
and then i went to the conference with pad in hand.
As the speakers gave their presentations, i wrote as fast as i could, every point i judged to be of importance - abreviated so i could read what i wrote later… but word for word.
i wrote my questions as i listened. I had all your questions with me and referred to them often. I knew what i wanted to ask Dr. Nabarro if i had the chance to ask him a question after his presentation. I had many and would base it on what he said.
Immediately after my meeting with Dr. Nabarro i sat and wrote what you read. Word for word.
I did not filter any of it nor change it. The posting is exactly what was on my 6 pages of notes.
Those of you who have not prepped yet, please begin. the journey of 1,000 miles begins with one step… one hundred pound weightloss begins with the first pound. You earn a black belt by being a white belt first.
Those of you who are prepped - you are as prepped as the houses around you. Total quarentine over an extended period will not work. I thought it would but in reality it won’t. You, who have the same knowledge i have need to step up your game. I have made the first step. Just today i made a key alliance that may make a world of difference to this nation. I am appealing to you - use your vision that only we seem to have. The difference between us and the non preppers is that vision. It is a gift that we must use and share with our fellow man.
Speaking with my wife today - the first serious conversation about this- up to now she has humored me and prepped with me (on most things - i still hide things i think we need but know she would call the men in white coats for) - she naturally assumed that others - close friends and relatives would come! I was astounded. How can we feed all those people and make it through with 3 months of preps? a year of preps? not enough. While i would love the extra bodies to man the guns, they will never fire unless an armed attack on us happens.
IMHO - we are headed for an unimaginable crisis to the human race. No one will survive unscathed… even the most remote and most preppared of us. It is utter fantasy to think otherwise.
I am sure there will be those who are convinced otherwise - i was. Not anymore.
Something has changed. It is the busines world accepting the probablility of pandemic as they consider the probabilty of a fire in the wharehouse and buy plenty of insurance.
we now have their support - the conference’s sharp focus showed me something else - these companies are NOT looking to profit from the pandemic and peoples fears. They are fearful of not surviving the pandemic. They are fearful of shutting down. They want to “insure” their survival and so they will be helping to put systems in place to ensure that they survive and they all know full well that it will be their people they need to survive.
i have taken my first baby step - i have prepped my home. I am taking my next step and begin the proccess of prepping everyone in my town… then the surrounding towns… then my state… then the eastern seaboard … then the rest of the country - I sure hope someone beats me to the punch - and it not be H5N1.
we now have their support - the conference’s sharp focus showed me something else - these companies are NOT looking to profit from the pandemic and peoples fears. They are fearful of not surviving the pandemic. They are fearful of shutting down. They want to “insure” their survival and so they will be helping to put systems in place to ensure that they survive and they all know full well that it will be their people they need to survive."
It was when I saw the investment by the business world- with both time and money- that the impact of the pandemic hit me. I found a pandemic planning by Citigroup- which had taken almost two years to develop, I believe. "Follow the money." What a tremendous resource within the small local communities if businesses could be utilized.
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I would recommend 90 days of food, water, and other essentials, at a minimum. This amount will allow you to re-stock at your convenience and not be at the mercy of external events that you can not anticipate or control.
Nabarro is indeed a very fine public servant.
If I were to meet him, I would ask him how he views the insights and efforts of Dr. Niman. Does he agree with his general view (Dr. Niman isn't very diplomatic, of course)?
Nabarro's reaction to Goju's reference to the Qinghai strain tells me that he *would* agree with Dr. Niman.
Best, DA
Got fertilizer? Compost tea is amazing stuff. Maybe that's not such a great idea anymore....
Juste un mot pour te dire que si tu n'existais pas, il faudrait t'inventer
:yinyang:
Start somewhere - this is my newfound belief.
It's hard to believe that so few within this particular group were prepped.
LOL - Thanks - there are some who would not agree with you (very few of course)
I was impressed with the french officer of health.
Clearly Nabarro was not happy with his comments of border and airport restrictions.
Goju,
Juste un mot pour te dire que si tu n'existais pas, il faudrait t'inventer
:yinyang:
if the cost is attractive and the presentation compelling, they will buy more.
Those who survive the pandemic must deal with the aftermath. Having a CFR of 50 % or greater is something that is extremely difficult to fathom. However, should it play out like that, those who survive will be required to deal with the devastation- and the rebuilding. Is there a way of "prepping" also now for some of the things the survivors will need to rebuild? It can be hard to have the answers when we don't know what the questions may be. I believe the fortitude and preseverance of all the good workers- each with their own unique gifts- aim at laying that foundation. And for that, I am thankful. :)
-hawkeye
Terrific, electrifying post!
What struck me is the report that 70%+ of the biz's who could not get goods for 10 days closed and of those 40%+ never reopened.
I've hounded my suppliers and customers long enough that they listen to me now when I send them info on bird flu. But what you found, that even the speakers on this topic are hypocritical, "It can't happen here", as they're frankly unprepared, ratifies the need for each of us to prepare for desperation all around us. I've built an inventory tracking system to know what's where and I'm ready to move all of what's out there to public, bonded warehouses in order to raise the probability that I'll get my inventory back after the pandemic, assuming I survive, and at that time I'll be able to see who's left standing. For people like me, manufacturers of stuff, your news above is very scarey information.
Also, what struck me as vital is the estimate now, which I think we should distrust, that it will be 30 days plus before the pandemic is here, after it's in Asia.
If it's in Asia, it will have devastating impact wherever it "lands" ex-that-country and spreads. The first arrival locations will be the start of the pandemic. If I may, their observation is broad brush and not of service to us. You and most of us know that this virus will spread rapidly and along high probability avenues. I sure wish there were more discussion yet again on what that will look like. The MIDAS Report must have covered that. The 30 day estimate gives a false sense of protective hope.
Thank you again and again for venturing out and investing your own lucre to bring back this information.
I believe food production will be critical. We cannot rely on an extensive distribution network, so local food may be critical. Prep with "heritage" seeds. Standard seeds do not produce viable seeds for the following year's crop, while heritage seeds produce product with viable seed. This has been discussed elsewhere.
Goju - thanks again for all your efforts. How is your garden?
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I appreciate your tireless work and dedication. Your notes on the conference will help save lives. The message of alarm and urgency is loud and clear. The scenario you describe in your most recent post reminds me of scenarios for survivors of global nuclear war. Now, let us stop and breath deep for a few minutes to consider what we are prepping for? What is the purpose of our survival? What reality do we define by our survival behaviors?
Everyone who gets involved in this must make a personal values decision.
The preparations for survival are somewhat different if we are preparing for the survival of ourselves. society or souls.
It may be time for us to begin delineating the differences on this site as we re-double our efforts spurned on by your work. These distinct efforts to not have to be at odds with each other.
In this setting I will emphasize my personal choice to prep for the survival of society. That puts more importance on community planning and social engagement than some of the other strategies. I also have to emphasize that even in worst case scenarios of 50% + case fatality rates, there will be survivors of human pandemic influenza and the first wave of pandemic survivors will have a very unique important role in pandemic society.
For individuals, survival in place (SIP) may be the most certain strategy, but we must ensure that social structures remain intact for survival of society (SOS).
- with respect and camaraderie
C R
Thanks for taking your time'
It is comforting to know the oil companies are doing their best to keep the energy supplies flowing.
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Can we make this thread sticky?
I am soooo soryy I didnt ask the "oil question" to Homeland security. Thinking back now i realize that i allowed my questions to follow THEIR lead. They didnt really address the oil issue. In my mind it is THE issue to prevent mass death from starvation, freezing and violence.
Unfortunately this is common among many who have become involved in the H5N1 efforts.
I personally was prepped. I have spent so much time on this project that my preps are extremely diminished as I have used them to supplement my busy daily living. Also, I have given my medicinal preps to my friends and family and have not re-stocked myself.
I urge all persons to use this weekend to assess their preparation status.
One thing with boots on the grounds that does work. For companie that are owned by family or few individuals; most of them have what we call loose leaders, that is an attractive products that they sell in special even if they do not make any profits with it.
I have managed to convinced one major chain (own by one family) to choose as their loose leader, bleach, Viata C, Zinc, paper, pencil, kleenex, thermometers, etc..
Once you meet them, expose the facts, (I brought few print papers with me), they listen, they do not push you out and if or when they read about this bird flu, they go along with the proposition as much as they can, I have personnally witness that.
I even convinced some Chinatown store to sell cordyceps at the cost price.
It take some time and perseverance but it DOES work.
Goju, I know how you work hard to sensibilise your neighbord. Make a paper of what you have done and do bring it to them again. Perseverance, constance, even stubborness is one efficient way, it works but be constant.
From a friend that has 12 000 posts on the internet since more than 2 years.
Give it another try my friend :)
Gives one much pause.
Thank you Flu Tracker.Com for all your education and dedication, glad some (all of you) are willing to be leaders by teaching and by doing. Proud and honored to know you and learn from each and every one of you.
Thank you
Terrie Modesto
This is my first opportunity to read then post my thoughts here. First, I want to thank you for your tireless efforts to keep us up to date on what is happening in the topmost tier of the business world. I am certain you zeroed in on Dr. Nabarro deliberately. I want to thank you personally for using this opportunity to speak with him personally and inviting him into our world. Now he knows that not everyone out there is clueless and, we have both the means and the desire to educate as many as we can possibly reach. Let us pray he in return uses us as the tool we have worked so hard to be.
I am no longer surprised that we seem to be far more well-prepared and in charge of the facts than even many of the 'experts'. The internet allows a sifting of vast numbers of people. The result is those of us who are predisposed, willing, capable and mentally able to accept the ramifications of H5N1 have deliberately sought out like-minded citizens from all over the world. This is the first time that a cadre of individuals who have never met one another face-to-face, can bring all of our unique talents and educations together to quite possibly make the difference between life and death for thousands if not millions of people. We are making a difference because of people like you.
The stores could have warehouses full of these kits so they could dispatch 18-wheeler trucks to their store parking lots and just sell the kits off the truck as people drive by to do pick up. Low overhead, little disruption of the store's ordinary routine and product lines etc, and a way to get mass products out quickly. Surely since we have the knowledge to serve hot hamburgers and soda in a drive through fashion, we can figure out how to sell fast pandemic food and supplies in a hurry! If necessary, let McDonald teach us!
Now stepping off my soap box!
TM
Kudo's also for the link at mipodcast. That's a great collection of resources.
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